Why Boris Johnson should be losing but isn't
Adam Bienkov | Wednesday 2 March, 2011 08:40
For a politician facing an election in just over a year’s time, prospects shouldn’t be looking good for Boris Johnson.
With growth down, unemployment up and two long winters of transport chaos behind him, any other Mayor would be getting ready to pack his panniers at City Hall.
Congenitally inactive, contemptuous of scrutiny and attached by the pockets to London’s hated banking industry, Boris should by now be the lamest of all lame ducks.
And yet the latest polling conducted by YouGov shows that Boris is actually only marginally behind his opponent Ken Livingstone and could even be ahead once second preferences are taken into account.
And whilst you might expect Boris’s fare rises and support for one of the most unpopular groups in London to have harmed his chances, the poll shows him actually leading with lowest paid Londoners.
So why is Boris proving to be so resilient in voters’ affections? And why has Ken Livingstone failed to fatally wound him so far?
The first and obvious answer is personality. Unlike national politics, mayoral politics is mostly about personalities, not parties.
Labour failed to understand this in 2000, when they pitted the decent but uncharismatic Frank Dobson against Livingstone.
At the peak of his powers and following a landslide general election, Tony Blair figured that the traditionally safe Labour stronghold of London would accept the Labour candidate come what may.
In the end this proved to be a fatal misjudgement and independent candidate Ken cruised to victory leaving Labour in a humiliating third place, only narrowly ahead of the Lib Dems.
Now in 2011 some in the Labour Party seem to be making the same mistake, hoping that unpopular decisions made nationally will swing Ken to victory again locally.
In a close race this may well prove to be the case, but only a fool would rely upon it as a strategy in an election dominated by the clash of two distinct personalities. To win outright Labour and Ken need to face up to this fact fast. So far they’ve failed to do so.
The second reason for Boris’s resilience is the lack of any real day-to-day opposition.
In national politics, the government’s statements are routinely met by arguments from the opposition, with the Prime Minister facing a high-profile battle with his opposite number on a weekly basis.
But in City Hall the Mayor is allowed to govern almost totally unchallenged by the inconvenience of having to deal with his political opponents.
Apart from the monthly clash with a powerless London Assembly, Boris is as free to rule as any medieval monarch, and with few of the same checks and balances.
With a gift for the outrageous phrase and a national media interested only in his various quips and clashes with David Cameron, Boris is free to range far and wide without ever having to seriously fear the consequences.
And yet this could all change dramatically as we get closer to the elections next year.
After two years in government, and following a series of unpopular cuts, the contest between Ken and Boris will be seen rightly or wrongly as a major test for the Conservatives.
Hugely popular within party ranks, a defeat for Boris would be deeply resented and if he were to fall in 2012, it would surely not be long before Cameron fell too.
For these reasons, the battle next year will be closely watched and Ken will find himself getting both the good and bad attention he has failed to get so far.
But attention is not enough and whilst Boris is increasingly showing political weaknesses on all fronts, they are weaknesses that Ken has yet to find effective means of exploiting.
To do so will take huge political skill and a lot of hard work. A resurgent Labour Party will now be hoping that Ken Livingstone still has it in him.
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