The Scoop

Why Boris Johnson's bubble will burst

Adam Bienkov | Friday 31 May, 2013 11:02

Boris Johnson’s admirers are very excited about a new poll that shows that 65% of Londoners think he is doing a good job as Mayor of London.

“It is hard to think of any other politician who can boast such numbers” boasts James Forsyth at The Spectator.

Except it isn’t that hard.

Just take a look at Alex Salmond, who has posted similar numbers many times over the years.

Or Michael Bloomberg in New York, who hovered around the 60% mark for over a decade.

Or indeed many other directly elected mayors and regional politicians across the world.

In fact perhaps the best comparison is Boris’s predecessor, Ken Livingstone.

In 2007, after seven years in office, 51% of Londoners said they were satisfied with the job he was doing as Mayor and just 23% said they were dissatisfied.

Within a year he was booted out of office.

Boris will avoid that fate, having pledged not to stand for a third time, but his popularity is just as vulnerable as Ken’s was then.

City mayors and other regional politicians govern with nothing like the serious day-to-day opposition and scrutiny faced by Westminster politicians.

The poll numbers reflect that.

While Boris’s current ratings may be good, they’re based almost solely on his charisma ratings.

His other personal ratings in the YouGov poll are all poor, suggesting that most of the public don’t really know or care about the actual job that he does. They just like him.

Because of this, comparing Boris’s poll numbers to David Cameron’s or Ed Miliband’s is misleading.

Unlike Cameron, Boris has no shadow Mayor of London, he has no daily screaming headlines damning his every move.

In fact he only has one newspaper regularly covering what he does at all, and even that’s owned and edited by his personal friends.

His popularity, like Ken’s before him is a bubble. That bubble will burst as soon as any real pressure is put upon it.

That time will come if and when Boris ever does decide to go back into Parliament.

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