The Metropolis

That LibDem rally? Better do the maths first

Darren Atwater | Monday 19 April, 2010 18:56

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PolitcoStatics site Five Thirty Eight has taken their patented what do the polls actually mean method to the current Liberal Democrat surge, and it’s not pretty.

If the bounce simply manifests in a massive burst of support in seats that the Lib Dems already hold, along with a few nearby marginals, the end result could be a pickup of a modest 10 to 20 seats. Similarly, if it comes from alienated opposition voters in safe Labour or Tory seats (tactical/protest voters who would not vote Lib Dem over their own party), again the Lib Dem share of MPs will not budge very much.

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